Yes, although the protocol is already open, which I think mitigates the risk slightly. Bluesky is also organized as a public benefit corp, which mitigates the risk almost not at all but is interesting. If Bluesky begins to go the way of Twitter, other corporations or entities can make interoperable replacements easily. That was not so for Twitter.
But in general, yes. This is the same song but a different verse. People have been so blinded by the brokenness of the internet as it is now that an interoperable protocol doesn’t make any sense to them.
My guess is either people are downgrading, or enough people are dropping Windows entirely after previously using Windows 11 (whether by switching to Mac or Linux, or by deciding that they don’t need laptops at all and can get by with just an iPad or something) to affect the percentages.